Netanyahu promises Iran regime change: Can Israel topple Tehran government?

Israel can inflict devastating damage on Iran, but analysts question its ability to overthrow Tehran’s government. Save Share Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that overthrowing Iran’s government remains Israel’s “primary objective”, as he faces declining support in the polls before national elections next week. His remarks came after conversations with United States President Donald Trump on Sunday and a visit to Israel by Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth. But Netanyahu offered no indication that Washington had agreed to join another offensive against Iran, let alone a campaign to bring down Iran’s leadership. While Israel has the firepower to inflict serious damage on Iran, analysts told Al Jazeera, it lacks a clear strategy for translating military gains into the overthrow of Iran’s government. Air strikes alone are unlikely to achieve that objective, while a ground invasion would demand a far greater military commitment, they said. A renewed offensive would also mean confronting a state that has already survived two rounds of attacks and retains the means to retaliate – both against Israel and its Gulf neighbours who are hosting US military assets. US backing, meanwhile, remains uncertain, with experts questioning Washington’s appetite for renewed fighting as it is yet to find a credible prospect of forcing Iran’s government to surrender to its demands. Israel’s ability to attack Iran is not in doubt, experts say. Urban Coningham, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Al Jazeera that its offensive weapons stockpiles, and “aerial refuelling” capabilities give it a substantial advantage. “Israel could again establish air superiority and strike Iranian targets,” he said. But while Israel can inflict serious damage, analysts are sceptical that it can accomplish regime change. Netanyahu has portrayed Iran’s leaders as a major threat since his first term as prime minister in 1996. Addressing the US Congress that July, he said, “The most dangerous of these regimes is Iran, that has wed a cruel despotism to a fanatic militancy.” Nearly 30 years later, US participation in the June 2025 war, and again in the campaign launched on February 28 this year, delivered the military intervention Netanyahu had long sought. The overthrow of Iran’s government, however, did not follow. Netanyahu himself acknowledged the limits of airpower in March, saying, “You can’t do it only from the air....