The escalation in Yemen is a turning point

The risk of a region-wide war is increasing, but if cooler heads prevail, a peaceful arrangement can still be reached. Save Share Yemen is witnessing a major military escalation that has once again brought the western coast and the area around the Bab al-Mandeb strait to the forefront of regional developments. Operation Yemen’s Dawn, launched by the forces loyal to the internationally recognised Yemeni government, has produced some results. Government forces have advanced towards the strait of Bab al-Mandeb and are now fighting against reinforced Houthi positions. Clashes continue in parts of Dhubab District and around Dhubab Airport. The central question now is whether these military moves can bring about a lasting change in the balance of power and whether they will widen the confrontation or open the way for a new negotiating process. Fighting has concentrated around Bab al-Mandeb because of its strategic position in global trade and energy flows. It is especially significant to the parties to the Yemeni conflict because control of the coastline, islands and surrounding highlands offers varying capabilities for surveillance, military deployment and threats to maritime traffic. An advance along the coast may enable government forces to retake key positions and restrict the Houthis’ space for manoeuvre. However, it does not, by itself, guarantee the security of the strait or eliminate threats to navigation. Even if the Houthis lose coastal positions, they could still retain their ability to launch attacks in the Red Sea. Threats to maritime traffic do not necessarily depend on direct control of the strait; they also depend on the availability of missiles, drones, launch platforms, supply networks and the ability to operate from other locations. As operations move from the coastal strip into the highlands, particularly the Kahbub Mountains in Lahj governorate and the highlands to the west and south-west of Taiz governorate, the challenges posed by the terrain, defence, movement and supply become more severe. In this context, three distinct levels must be differentiated: retaking coastal positions, consolidating military control over them and establishing a sustainable capacity to secure the strait and its surrounding area. Confusing these levels may lead either to an exaggerated assessment of the operation’s results or to an underestimation of the adversary’s ability to continue fighting....