What would it take for the Yemen offensive to succeed?

Territorial gains alone will not be enough to change the trajectory of the war. Save Share Two days after the announced counter-offensive by the internationally recognised Yemeni government, the operation named Dawn of Yemen has already made significant advances. Its forcesrecapturedterritory from the Houthis, an Iran-backed group, along the Red Sea coast near the Bab al-Mandeb strait. The Saudi-led coalition backing the government has deployed 100 fighter jets, flying round-the-clock to help secure the strait. In response, the Houthis have claimed attacks on Saudi territory. This is the most consequential escalation in the Yemen war since the UN-brokered truce of 2022. For four years, the war was managed as a frozen conflict. Now, both sides are trying to redraw the map. In the coming days, the success of the offensive will be determined not only by gains along three different fronts, but also by the ability of the forces loyal to the Yemeni government to maintain cohesion and force the Houthis to change their cost of conflict calculus. Keeping the Houthis overstretched The western coast is where the campaign will be won or lost, and the reason lies beyond Yemen. With Iran disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea has become the Gulf’s strategic lifeline. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu is its main route around Hormuz, yet crude shipped from Yanbu to Asian markets must still pass through Bab al-Mandeb. A Houthi grip on the strait’s Yemeni shore turns that bypass into a hostage. The Arabian Peninsula would then be squeezed at both ends simultaneously, a scenario that no Gulf capital, and few oil importing economies, can tolerate for long. There is also a counterintuitive point here. The Houthis’ greatest gain of the year – the territories near Bab al-Mandeb – may also be their most exposed position. Their traditional strength lies in the mountains of the north, where terrain, tribal networks and short supply lines favour defence. The Tihama coast is the opposite: a flat plain, far from their highland base, with long and vulnerable supply routes and little cover from sustained airpower. If the government can win decisively anywhere, it is here. The immediate aim need not be to defeat the Houthis outright, but to push them back from the strait, retake the islands and deny them the ability to convert geography into regional leverage. The second decisive front is Taiz....